Are Ron Paul Supporters Underrepresented Because of Cell Phones?

The demographics of a typical Ron Paul supporter is single, 20-something, male, and technically savvy. That technically savvy ability could be costing Ron Paul polling numbers because they tend to be cell phone only users. Such users are not polled.

Pollsters still rely on the old method of calling home telephones to do their polling. Yet, many Ron Paul supporters might be cell phone only people. Mediamark Research has indicated that in April of 2007 cell phones (86.2%) exceeded traditional landlines (84.5%) in homes. In addition, Mediamark has documented that a majority of cell phone only homes has out numbered landline only phones 12.3% to 14.0%, respectively. Their research also shows the demographic population for those using only cell phones are 18-34 and single. This fits the Ron Paul demographics perfectly.

Pollster.com has also noted in their research that “Pollsters routinely omit cell or mobile phone numbers from their samples.” These cell phone only users are considered “out of reach.” Consequently, cell phone only users are not counted in polling data. This means the poll numbers favor those who are landline only users which tend to be older, stay-at-home individuals.

It could be that Ron Paul is polling higher then 3 percent then the latest Gallup Poll. Of course, one could make the same argument for other candidates. The other candidates, however, do not tend to fit the cell phone only demographics as nicely as Ron Paul supporters.