2008: Reagan, No. JFK, Maybe.

…of Nikitas3.com

The Democrat party has been shaken to its core by the events of the last month. But the Republicans too have seen a different kind of tumult since last summer when the campaign of Arizona US Senator John McCain looked doomed while Rudy Giuliani appeared to be the odds-on favorite for the nomination. As of his Florida primary victory of January 29, however, McCain now is the national front-runner while Giuliani has dropped out of the race and has endorsed him.

So now the race has boiled down to McCain and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, both of whom are viewed with varying degrees of suspicion by the Republican base. With former Arkansas governor and ordained Baptist minister Mike Huckabee trailing far behind after an early surge in the Iowa caucuses, could we see a Vice President Huckabee? This could help either McCain or Romney among conservatives.

This race has caused much anxiety among the Republican faithful, and may be expanding the primary voter base to more liberal members of the party than normally would turn out. And this may be a turning point for the party. While only one viable candidate — former US Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee — carried Ronald Reagan’s torch, he dropped out after poor showings and lackluster campaigning seemed to indicate that he in no way had “the fire in the belly” needed to be elected leader of the free world.

McCain has shown that fire, and surprising vigor for his age. If elected he would be the oldest President (at 72) ever sworn in for a first term. Reagan was 74 when he was sworn in for his second term. McCain is amazingly fit, and his beautiful wife plays her role just right as one of the most exotic First Lady candidates ever, charging his campaign with a tingle.

McCain, however, has big problems. Even his own mother, who is 95 and sharp as a tack, said that her son has “no support” among the Republican base. And for good reason: McCain has had a bad habit over the years of angering conservatives by opposing the Bush tax cuts twice; by co-sponsoring McCain/Feingold, the most restrictive (and to conservatives the most unconstitutional) campaign finance law ever passed; by pairing up with Ted Kennedy and writing legislation that would essentially have granted amnesty to illegal aliens; and by saying he would support legislation to reign in the “global warming” bogeyman which conservatives reject as an unproven theory.

Giuliani’s fall from grace was rapid and should give McCain pause. Rudy ended up having far too many differences with the Republican base, particularly his very liberal views on social issues like gay rights and abortion which allowed him to be elected mayor of New York City twice but which never resonated much west of the Hudson River. His personal life (married three times) also disturbed Christians in particular. It was rumored that James Dobson of Focus on the Family was prepared to back a third-party candidate if Giuliani were the nominee.

Giuliani’s risky campaign strategy also contributed to his downfall, skipping the early primaries to focus on Florida, which he then lost badly. And so the former mayor now is gone, and McCain and Romney are left. But with California governor Schwarzenegger also endorsing McCain one week before the Super Tuesday primary there, the momentum has shifted decidedly. And the Terminator’s endorsement may carry weight in the general election, possibly putting California “in play” for the Republicans for the first time since Reagan.

McCain has, and may continue to have money problems though, and this may be where his “maverick” status ends up hurting him. If conservatives sit on their wallets, McCain may have a rough go. They may choose to let him twist in the wind, and many may stay home next November. With national commentators like Rush Limbaugh openly disdainful of McCain, it will be an interesting year for both men. Whether they make any kind of peace for the sake of party unity will be a noteworthy subtext to this election.

Thus the issue of electability may be turning into a big consolation prize for many conservatives. It is said that McCain, by his centrist stands on some issues, may be able to attract enough independents and Democrats (and their money) needed to tilt the race in November, while losing some voters on the right. But already he is appealing to conservatives. John McCain is no Ronald Reagan, but after Florida he gave a speech in which he repeatedly mentioned The Gipper in flattering terms in order to begin the process of shoring up his right flank. This is the opposite of what most primary candidates do, who generally appeal to more conservative (or liberal) primary voters, then move to the center for the general election.

But this only leaves conservatives longing. Reagan was Reagan, and until another Reagan comes along, the party will yearn for 1980 when the former California governor stormed the political stage and, in the next eight years, transformed America and the world in the conservative mold.

Meanwhile, with people like Ted Kennedy backing Barack Obama and JFK daughter Caroline Kennedy calling Obama “a president like my father”, the Democrats may have their JFK for 2008, something they have been searching for for decades.

McCain truly is a military hero from Vietnam, and actually has a conservative voting record overall. The million-dollar question is: Are those on the right willing to forgive his political transgressions in favor of “the big picture”?

It will be fascinating to watch.