Betting on the News…?!

NewsFutures: Prediction Markets is a new social news sites, which boasts “delivering the wisdom of crowds”. To see how it works, go here, and create an account. No real money is exchanged, although winners are able to bid on real prizes such as upgrades, or Amazon.com gift certificates.

According to an ABC report:

While the money earned on NewsFutures isn’t real, Servan-Schreiber [the creator of NewsFutures] argues that prediction markets are an incredibly valuable tool.

“I think of them as a brain,” he said. “You take a bunch of individually stupid neurons and put them together. Through massive interaction emerges intelligence. It’s the same thing with the market.”

“The market really is smarter than the average player in there, and sometimes smarter than anyone in there, even the best player,” he said. This aggregation of many people’s opinions, Servan-Schreiber argued, produces an “incredible probability that the market prices really corresponds to the probability [of the event occurring].”

Following is a CBS video about the site.

Question: How, if at all, do you think this type of technology and social networking will affect American politics?