Watching FOX News today and seeing Carl Cameron being patted on the back for predicting a Romney was irritating at best.  Of course Romney won!  He outspent all other participants by huge numbers.  As well, the Iowa straw poll is a fund raiser for the Iowa Republican Party and they way they raise money is by the candidates paying for busses and the $35 per head it cost to get in.  Romney brought in a ton of people and he won, as predicted by everyone.  However, he didn’t win big and that is a problem for him.

In interviews since the close of the straw poll yesterday, Romney has defended his victory and who can blame him.  But he has to be very disappointed that he didn’t run away with it.  He certainly spent enough to expect that, yet it didn’t happen.

In contrast, Mike Huckabee spent very little and he came in second!  Huckabee is the big winner in Iowa.  Romney spent maybe ten times as much as Huckabee.  So now Huckabee, a second tier candidate to this point, is poised to move into the top tier of Republican candidates.

To date I’ve been a Fred Thompson supporter but I’ve been watching Huckabee closely.  I went to a Huckabee event a month or so ago and he really impressed me there.  Huckabee knows his subjects.  He is able to not only speak intelligently about all manner of topics, but he can field the questions well too.  And, Huckabee is clearly a true conservative.  On issue after issue Mike Huckabee’s position is the conservative position and he presents and defends those positions very well.  The only problem for people like me was his electability or lack thereof.

That one concern appears to be fading.  With his showing in Iowa Huckabee could surge ahead of other candidates right into the top tier.  If that happens, Fred Thompson will be scratching his head wondering what happened to his strategy.  There is no way Thompson planned on this outcome in Iowa.

For his part Fred Thompson has been playing a dangerous game.  He was strung out his announcement perhaps too far.  Supporters like me who have grown impatient have already been looking around for another possible candidate who fills the conservative roll.  You haven’t read about it because many, like me, haven’t been especially vocal about their impatience but it is there, believe me.

If Huckabee moves into the top tier as a result of the Iowa straw poll, the big loser may be Fred Thompson.  Clearly Thompson has planned on taking support away from Romney when he enters the race.  If much of that support has already moved to Huckabee, Thompson will not gain nearly as much as he planned on.

Huckabee is the man to watch over the next few weeks.  His ability to raise money just got a huge shot in the arm and if he can translate that into campaign cash and a solid organization he may end up as the man to beat.  Giuliani and McCain never stood a chance with the conservative vote so right now it looks like a race between Romney, Huckabee and Thompson for those voters.  If Thompson doesn’t move very soon, he will be too late.